Oscar predictions 2020

My picks for the 92nd Academy Awards

Exclusive to MeierMovies, February 7, 2020

The 92nd Academy Awards, honoring the best filmmaking of 2019, will be held February 9 in Los Angeles. I predict 1917 will have a strong night, taking home six trophies, including best film.

Below are my complete predictions, along with my opinions of who “deserves to win” (out of the nominees) and who “really deserves to win” (out of ALL films, not just the nominees). And for a complete ranking of all 2019 films I’ve seen, go here.

Best Film
Will win: 1917
Deserves to win: 1917
Really deserves to win: 1917
Note: Based on its wins at the BAFTAs, the Directors Guild Awards and the Golden Globes (though the latter doesn‘t have any cross-over voters with the Academy), 1917 seems a lock. But Parasite could be a spoiler. The biggest snub of the year – even more egregious because no one seems to be discussing it – is Ad Astra.

Best Director
Will win: Sam Mendes, 1917
Deserves to win: Sam Mendes, 1917
Really deserves to win: Sam Mendes, 1917

Best Actor
Will win: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Deserves to win: Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Really deserves to win: Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Note: Phoenix and Driver dominate the most competitive category of this year’s Oscars. Though I’m rooting for Driver, as his performance seemed a tad more complete and versatile, this is Phoenix’s year and I’ll be happy if he wins. (I’m still a bit sad that Eddie Murphy didn’t receive more recognition for Dolemite Is My Name).

Best Actress
Will win: Renée Zellweger, Judy
Deserves to win: Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Really deserves to win: Julianne Moore, Gloria Bell

Best Supporting Actor
Will win: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Deserves to win: Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Really deserves to win: Jonathan Majors, The Last Black Man in San Francisco
Note: The lead-actor category was so competitive this year that actors who might have otherwise been considered for lead were pushed into consideration for supporting actor. Hopkins and Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood) illustrate that. One actor noticeably missing from this category is Tracy Letts (Ford v Ferrari), in addition to Jonathan Majors (The Last Black Man in San Francisco), who really deserves to win (if you consider his performance a supporting one). If Pitt wins, which I expect him to, justice will have at least been served, as he was left out of the lead-actor category for Ad Astra.

Best Supporting Actress
Will win: Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Deserves to win: Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Really deserves to win: Adèle Haenel, Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Note: Haenel’s performance could be considered a lead, but it’s noticeably smaller than her co-star. So, in keeping with this year’s pattern of sliding smaller lead roles into the supporting category, she would be my pick. Alas, she didn’t get nominated. Neither did the film.

Best International Feature (Foreign-Language)
Will win: Parasite
Deserves to win: Parasite
Really deserves to win: Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Note: Thanks to the flawed nominating process, which allows just one nominee per country, France nominated Les Miserables instead of Portrait of a Lady on Fire.

Best Original Screenplay
Will win: Bong Joon-Ho and Han Jin-Won, Parasite
Deserves to win: Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story
Really deserves to win: Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will win: Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit
Deserves to win: Anthony McCarten, The Two Popes
Really deserves to win: Anthony McCarten, The Two Popes

Best Editing
Will win: Ford v Ferrari
Deserves to win: Joker
Really deserves to win: Joker

Best Cinematography
Will win: Roger Deakins, 1917
Deserves to win: Roger Deakins, 1917
Really deserves to win: Roger Deakins, 1917
Note: Bet the farm on this one.

Best Production Design
Will win: 1917
Deserves to win: 1917
Really deserves to win: 1917
Note: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood could be the spoiler here.

Best Costumes
Will win: Little Women
Deserves to win: Little Women
Really deserves to win: Little Women

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Will win: Bombshell
Deserves to win: Bombshell
Really deserves to win: Bombshell

Best Visual Effects
Will win: The Irishman
Deserves to win: The Lion King
Really deserves to win: The Lion King
Note: The Lion King should also have been nominated for best animated film, but it was marketed as a live-action film, which is ridiculous. The quality of this category is crazy-good this year. (Not even making the cut were Ad Astra, Alita: Battle Angel and Gemini Man, all of which are deserving.)

Best Original Score
Will win: Joker
Deserves to win: Marriage Story
Really deserves to win: Marriage Story

Best Original Song
Will win: “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again,” Rocketman
Deserves to win: “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away,” Toy Story 4
Really deserves to win: “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away,” Toy Story 4

Best Sound Editing
Will win: 1917
Deserves to win: 1917
Really deserves to win: 1917

Best Sound Mixing
Will win: 1917
Deserves to win: Ad Astra
Really deserves to win: Ad Astra
Note: The sound categories invariably confuse people not familiar with the art of sound design. Think of sound editing as something that happens first, on a micro level. Then sound mixing comes along, on a macro level, and puts it all together. (If you can’t hear the dialogue underneath the explosions and music, blame the sound mixing.)

Best Animated Feature
Will win: Toy Story 4
Deserves to win: Toy Story 4
Really deserves to win: Toy Story 4
Note: I Lost My Body probably won’t win, but it deserves recognition as the most original and visionary animated feature of the year.

Best Documentary Feature
Will win: For Sama
Note: I haven’t seen all the nominees yet, so I’ll pass on naming my preferences. However, my top two docs are 63 Up and Apollo 11. (Among the nominees, American Factory is better than Honeyland.)

Best Documentary Short
Will win: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)
Deserves to win: Life Overtakes Me
Really deserves to win: Rooting for Roona

Best Live-Action Short
Will win: Brotherhood
Deserves to win: The Neighbors’ Window
Really deserves to win: This Time Away

Best Animated Short
Will win: Mémorable
Deserves to win: Mémorable
Really deserves to win: Mémorable
Note: Hair Love has a good chance of winning, though it’s only the fourth best of the nominees.

 

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